Udržateľnosť siete škôl so základným vzdelávaním v kontexte zmenšujúcej sa populácie žiakov: demografický pokles na Slovensku

Sustainability of the Network of Primary Education Schools in the Context of a Shrinking Pupil Population: Demographic Decline in Slovakia

Janetta Nestorová Dická, Denisa Jacková

In: Geografické informácie (Geographical Information), Ročník (Volume) 26, Číslo (Issue) 1, 2022, p. 88-116, ISSN 1337-9453

DOI: 10.17846/GI.2022.26.1.88-116

Abstract

The processes of population ageing, as a result of which the birth and fertility rates have decreased, have a significant impact on changes in the population of compulsory school children aged 6 – 14. The paper aims to point out the changes in their number, in the context of their impact on the network of primary schools in Slovakia and its regions. Based on data from the SO SR and the CSaTI SR, the paper analyzes changes in the reproductive behaviour of the population and the subsequent response, in the form of transformation of the number of primary schools and their classes, in the period 1996 – 2020. Using the cohort-component method, which takes into account mortality and migration behaviour, a forecast of the development of the number of compulsory school children until 2026 was created for the districts of Slovakia. The declining trend of the population of compulsory school children and the consequent changes in schools was confirmed in most regions of Slovakia, except for areas such as the hinterland of Bratislava, affected by the suburbanization of young families. Also Spiš or Orava as regions with increased birth rates and fertility, influenced by the ethnic composition or religiosity of the local population. The regional differentiation of the development is also confirmed by the created prognosis of children aged 6 – 14, based on which we can assume the further formation of the network of primary schools. According to the findings, the districts in the east and south of Slovakia, except for Spiš and Šariš, should be regressive, while those in the vicinity of regional towns and Považie should be progressive. The paper offers a more detailed analysis of the population of compulsory school children, which is examined in other studies mainly as part of the child component of the population.

Keywords: ageing, natality, fertility, compulsory school children, region, prognosis, cohort-component method, Slovakia

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